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Pro poker strategy involves understanding and calculating expected value, which is the expected rate of return on a bet. Expected value (profit or loss) is calculated by subtracting your expected losses from your expected wins. A positive result means profit; a negative result means loss.
Consider the following situation:
- X has a probability of 30%; if you hit X, you will win $10
- Y has a probability of 50%; if you hit Y, you will win $2
- Z has a probability of 20%; if you hit Z, you will lose $5
So, your expected value is (0.30 x 10) + (0.5 x 2) - (0.2 x 5) = 3 + 1 - 1 = 3. Therefore, your expected value is $3 in this situation. If you played this particular game 100 times, you could expect to earn 3 x 100 = $300.
When it comes to poker betting strategy, expected value is dependent upon pot odds theory (i.e., pot odds, implied odds). In theory, you should only draw to a hand when you are in a positive situation (i.e., when you have a positive expected value). For example, suppose that you have Ad8d in your hand and 7d9d3c show up on the board. You have a 35% chance of hitting a flush on the turn or river. If another player bets, then it makes sense to raise since you have a good chance to win the pot. In this one instance, where you have to make a $5 bet to win a $20 pot, your expected profit is (0.35 x 20) - 5 = $2.
Of course, this situation does not consider the possibility of winning with a different poker hands (such as AA), nor does it consider losing to another hand (such as a full house). This scenario also does not consider a re-raise behind your raise, which could knock out other players and decrease your expected value.
Your poker betting strategy (i.e., bluffing, calling other players' bluffs) is dependent upon expected value. When you bluff, you should be able to estimate that bluff's chances at success; you want positive results in the long run. Suppose that you have a losing hand, but want to represent a winning hand by betting half the pot (e.g., betting $25 at a $50 pot). You need to win at least 1 in 3 times (33% of the time) to break even or stay ahead.
Expected value can also be used to clarify the differences between big and small mistakes. When a player makes a decision with a very high negative expected value, that is a big mistake. A small mistake occurs when a player gives up a small amount of expected value. Knowing when to fold will help you to manage big and small mistakes.
If you are a regular poker player, then you should be able to calculate your hourly expected value. Keep statistics on all poker hands, how much time you spent playing poker, where you played, what you played, and how much you won or lost. Many poker sites include statistical tracking features in their software so that you can keep track of your results. Once you hit about 200 hours in a particular game or limit, you can reasonably estimate your expected value (win or loss).
Remember to avoid playing at a limit that is above your comfort level. Playing scared means that you will avoid playing hands where you have a small advantage, which will cause to give up more expected value than you should. This means that you will lose more poker hands in the long run than necessary.
Use expected value as a part of your poker betting strategy. Take this strategy into the online poker rooms of your choice so that you can gauge your level of success.
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