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Many poker players will find themselves in a drawing situation at the flop. When deciding on how to play a poker draw, players need to consider pot odds, implied odds, reverse implied odds, and the potential for a redraw.
Pot odds are relatively simple to understand and calculate. You determine the odds required to make a call based on the money in pot (provided, of course, that you will win if you hit your draw). In the case of a flush draw, you have 9 outs after the flop, which gives you a 19.1% chance of hitting the flush at the turn. If you are using pot odds to justify calling a bet, you must assume that you will win if you hit the flush and lose if you miss it. So, your calling bet must be less than 19.1% of the pot to justify making the call. For example, if you have to make a bet of $10 when the pot is $50, then your bet is 10/60, or 16.7%, of the pot. In this case, the bet makes sense.
However, basing your decision on pot odds neglects the fact that there will probably be additional poker bets in future rounds. Pot odds do not consider the fact that you may already have the best hand. It is also assumed that your opponent will not draw out against you. More importantly, though, is the fact that you may already be drawing dead (i.e., no matter what cards you get, you cannot beat your opponent's hand).
Implied odds consider future poker bets. Consider the flush draw scenario. Since you have a 19.1% chance of hitting the flush on the turn, then in theory you can call up to 19.1% of the amount of money you would expect to win in a showdown. You cannot know how much you will win in future rounds of betting; you can only guess using your best estimates.
The concept behind reverse implied odds and redraws indicates that you are not guaranteed to win just because you hit your desired hand. You have to consider the chances of losing even if you hit your draw and must consider how much money you will lose on future bets if this event occurs. When faced with drawing a flush, you have a 19.1% chance of hitting the draw on the turn. However, your chances of winning the hand may not be that high. Your opponent may have a full house, or may be drawing to a full house. You have to consider how much money you will lose if you hit the flush but lose the hand.
Knowing your pot odds will help you to make, and bet on, drawing situations. However, you need to know other probabilities as well, such as implied odds, reverse implied odds, and redraws. Take this knowledge with you into game situations when you sit down at the table in one of the online poker rooms listed on our website. |
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